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Study Finds Broad Rise in Medication Use by Those Newly Joining Medicaid

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 14 April 2015 | 12.07

Photo In Miami, an ad for the Affordable Care Act. Expanded access to Medicaid led to a 25 percent rise in prescriptions in 2014. Credit Joe Raedle/Getty Images

People newly covered by Medicaid drove a significant increase in prescription drug use in 2014, even as those with private commercial coverage filled fewer prescriptions and, over all, patients did not visit the doctor as often, according to a new report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, which tracks the health industry.

The report, released on Tuesday, offers a window into how consumers used their insurance in 2014, the first full year after millions of Americans gained coverage through the health care law, which expanded eligibility for Medicaid in many states and set up marketplaces where consumers could shop for insurance.

Patients with Medicaid in states that expanded access to the program filled 25.4 percent more prescriptions than in the previous year, before the expansion. In states that opted not to expand the program, the increase was much smaller at 2.8 percent.

Sabrina Corlette, a senior research fellow at the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University, described the difference as "stark," adding, "it suggests that in the Medicaid expansion states, people are accessing the health care system. They are seeing physicians and other prescribers and getting needed drugs."

The report also provided some new details on the overall growth of spending on prescription drugs, which, it said, rose substantially in 2014 — by 13.1 percent, to $373.9 billion. The increase is the highest since 2001 — mainly because of the arrival of expensive new drugs for conditions like hepatitis C, cancer and multiple sclerosis, at the same time that sales eroded less for brand-name drugs because of new competition with generic drugs. Spending on so-called specialty drugs — high-priced treatments that typically treat serious chronic diseases — accounted for one-third of drug spending in 2014, up from 23 percent five years ago.

Last year "was a remarkable year in terms of growth in spending on medicines," said Murray Aitken, executive director of the IMS Institute. But he added that while growth in specialty drug spending was expected to continue, the eye-popping increase in 2014 was unique and spending would most likely not rise as sharply in future years.

The report sheds some light on who enrolled in coverage through the new marketplaces. The IMS Institute found that 70 percent of people who used a marketplace plan to fill a prescription in 2014 had been covered by commercial insurance in 2013, either through an employer or through purchasing an individual plan. Nearly a quarter — 24 percent — paid cash in 2013, meaning they may have been uninsured. In all, the number of prescriptions paid in 2014 with cash declined by 5.5 percent compared to 2013.

Steven Jacobsohn, a retired financial analyst who lives in Manhattan, said his prescription drug coverage improved in 2014, when he switched from individual coverage through EmblemHealth to a less expensive marketplace plan sold by Health Republic. He said two common generic drugs to treat high cholesterol and blood pressure cost $10 a month under his old policy, but were free under the Health Republic plan. "It's a very good plan," said Mr. Jacobsohn, who is 57.

But even as some have seen their options improve, the report found that many are cutting back on prescription drug use and doctor visits. Many marketplace plans — and, increasingly, plans through employers — come with high deductibles and co-payments, forcing some patients to make tough choices.

Over all, patients made 3 percent fewer office visits and had 1.7 percent fewer hospital admissions. They filled slightly more prescriptions — 2.1 percent — but that was mainly driven by the large increases among Medicaid patients, the report found.

Researchers found that patients who took one type of diabetes drug were less likely to take the drug after their own costs reached $30, and even more so when their costs exceeded $125. Patients who had recently changed to a plan with a deductible took their drug for 25 fewer days, on average, compared to those with more comprehensive plans.

Gary Claxton, a vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, said it was difficult to generalize about consumers' coverage under high-deductible plans because they can vary widely in how they are set up. Still, he said, previous studies support the idea that "with more cost-sharing, you get less use."

Mr. Jacobsohn counts himself among patients who have let costs drive his health care decisions. Last year, he said, his doctor suggested that he switch from his generic atorvastatin prescription to Crestor, a more expensive brand-name drug, because his cholesterol was too high. When he learned that the Crestor prescription came with a $60 co-payment, Mr. Jacobsohn said he decided to wait six months to give the cheaper drug another chance to work. His cholesterol improved at the next visit and he never switched to Crestor.

"Not that I couldn't afford it," Mr. Jacobsohn said. "I just didn't know if I wanted to pay for it."

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

Owner of a Credit Card Processor Is Setting a New Minimum Wage: $70,000 a Year

Photo Aryn Higgins at work at Gravity Payments in Seattle. She and her co-workers are going to receive significant pay raises. Credit Matthew Ryan Williams for The New York Times

The idea began percolating, said Dan Price, the founder of Gravity Payments, after he read an article on happiness. It showed that, for people who earn less than about $70,000, extra money makes a big difference in their lives.

His idea bubbled into reality on Monday afternoon, when Mr. Price surprised his 120-person staff by announcing that he planned over the next three years to raise the salary of even the lowest-paid clerk, customer service representative and salesman to a minimum of $70,000.

"Is anyone else freaking out right now?" Mr. Price asked after the clapping and whooping died down into a few moments of stunned silence. "I'm kind of freaking out."

If it's a publicity stunt, it's costly one. Mr. Price, who started the Seattle-based credit-card payment processing firm in 2004 at the age of 19, said he would pay for the wage increases by cutting his own salary from nearly $1 million to $70,000 and using 75 to 80 percent of the company's anticipated $2.2 million in profit this year.

The paychecks of about 70 employees will grow, with 30 ultimately doubling their salaries, according to Ryan Pirkle, a company spokesman. The average salary at Gravity is $48,000 year.

Mr. Price's small, privately owned company is by no means a bellwether, but his unusual proposal does speak to an economic issue that has captured national attention: The disparity between the soaring pay of chief executives and that of their employees.

The United States has one of the world's largest pay gaps, with chief executives earning nearly 300 times what the average worker makes, according to some economists' estimates. That is much higher than the 20-to-1 ratio recommended by Gilded Age magnates like J. Pierpont Morgan and the 20th century management visionary Peter Drucker.

"The market rate for me as a C.E.O. compared to a regular person is ridiculous, it's absurd," said Mr. Price, who said his main extravagances were snowboarding and picking up the bar bill. He drives a 12-year-old Audi, which he received in a barter for service from the local dealer.

"As much as I'm a capitalist, there is nothing in the market that is making me do it," he said, referring to paying wages that make it possible for his employees to go after the American dream, buy a house and pay for their children's education.

Under a financial overhaul passed by Congress in 2010, the Securities and Exchange Commission was supposed to require all publicly held companies to disclose the ratio of C.E.O. pay to the median pay of all other employees, but it has so far failed to put it in effect. Corporate executives have vigorously opposed the idea, complaining it would be cumbersome and costly to implement.

Mr. Price started the company, which processed $6.5 billion in transactions for more than 12,000 businesses last year, in his dorm room at Seattle Pacific University with seed money from his older brother. The idea struck him a few years earlier when he was playing in a rock band at a local coffee shop. The owner started having trouble with the company that was processing credit card payments and felt ground down by the large fees charged.

When Mr. Price looked into it for her, he realized he could do it more cheaply and efficiently with better customer service.

The entrepreneurial spirit was omnipresent where he grew up in rural southwestern Idaho, where his family lived 30 miles from the closest grocery store and he was home-schooled until the age of 12. When one of Mr. Price's four brothers started a make-your-own baseball card business, 9-year-old Dan went on a local radio station to make a pitch: "Hi. I'm Dan Price. I'd like to tell you about my brother's business, Personality Plus."

His father, Ron Price, is a consultant and motivational speaker who has written his own book on business leadership.

Dan Price came close to closing up shop himself in 2008 when the recession sent two of his biggest clients into bankruptcy, eliminating 20 percent of his revenue in the space of two weeks. He said the firm managed to struggle through without layoffs or raising prices. His staff, most of them young, stuck with him.

Mr. Price said he wasn't seeking to score political points with his plan. From his friends, he heard stories of how tough it was to make ends meet even on salaries that were still well-above the federal minimum of $7.25 an hour.

"They were walking me through the math of making 40 grand a year," he said, then describing a surprise rent increase or nagging credit card debt.

"I hear that every single week," he added. "That just eats at me inside."

Mr. Price said he wanted to do something to address the issue of inequality, although his proposal "made me really nervous" because he wanted to do it without raising prices for his customers or cutting back on service.

Of all the social issues that he felt he was in a position to do something about as a business leader, "that one seemed like a more worthy issue to go after."

He said he planned to keep his own salary low until the company earned back the profit it had before the new wage scale went into effect.

Hayley Vogt, a 24-year-old communications coordinator at Gravity who earns $45,000, said, "I'm completely blown away right now." She said has worried about covering rent increases and a recent emergency room bill.

"Everyone is talking about this $15 minimum wage in Seattle and it's nice to work someplace where someone is actually doing something about it and not just talking about it," she said.

The happiness research behind Mr. Price's announcement on Monday came from Angus Deaton and Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning psychologist. They found that what they called emotional well-being — defined as "the emotional quality of an individual's everyday experience, the frequency and intensity of experiences of joy, stress, sadness, anger, and affection that make one's life pleasant or unpleasant" — rises with income, but only to a point. And that point turns out to be about $75,000 a year.

Of course, money above that level brings pleasures — there's no denying the delights of a Caribbean cruise or a pair of diamond earrings — but no further gains on the emotional well-being scale.

As Mr. Kahneman has explained it, income above the threshold doesn't buy happiness, but a lack of money can deprive you of it.

Phillip Akhavan, 29, earns $43,000 working on the company's merchant relations team. "My jaw just dropped," he said. "This is going to make a difference to everyone around me."

At that moment, no Princeton researchers were needed to figure out he was feeling very happy.

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

Volunteer for Sheriff Is Charged in Killing After Mistaking Handgun for Taser

Photo Robert Charles Bates, reserve deputy with the Tulsa County Sheriff's Department, says he confused a Taser and a handgun, weapons similar to these, when he shot a suspect. Credit Cory Young/Tulsa World, via Associated Press

Prosecutors in Tulsa, Okla., on Monday filed homicide charges against a 73-year-old Sheriff's Department volunteer who fatally shot a suspect on April 2, apparently firing his handgun instead of a Taser by accident as other officers were subduing the man on the ground.

The volunteer, Robert C. Bates, was charged with second-degree manslaughter involving culpable negligence, punishable by up to four years in prison.

Mr. Bates, an insurance broker, had been a reserve deputy since 2008. He is among scores of civilian police enthusiasts, including wealthy donors to law enforcement, some of whom effectively act as an armed adjunct to the Tulsa County Sheriff's Department.

Sheriff's officials said he had intended to subdue the fleeing suspect, Eric C. Harris, with a Taser, but mistakenly fired his handgun instead. Mr. Harris was accused of trying to sell an illegal gun to an undercover officer.

Video shot by a body camera worn by another deputy showed the suspect being knocked to the ground and commanded to roll on his stomach as officers struggled for a few seconds to subdue him. A voice on the video could be heard saying "Taser, Taser," as if to warn other deputies to get out of the way of the device.

Photo Robert C. Bates Credit Tulsa County Sheriff's Office, via Associated Press

A moment later, there was a single gunshot, and a voice saying, "Oh, I shot him. I'm sorry."

Mr. Harris, who is black, could be heard repeatedly shouting "He shot me," while a deputy knelt on the suspect's head and others yelled at him to stop struggling. The video showed Mr. Bates, who is white, dropping his pistol. Officials later said he dropped it because he was unprepared for the gun's recoil, and called it added proof that the shooting was an accident; a Taser has negligible recoil.

Mr. Bates's lawyer, Charles O. Brewster, said that his client would surrender to the authorities on Tuesday morning and that he intends to plead not guilty.

"Anyone that looked at the facts here would find that there was no crime committed," Mr. Brewster said. "It was a truly tragic incident."

Mr. Brewster expressed disappointment with the district attorney's decision to charge his client.

"I think it's kind of a response to the national fervor and media concerning police shootings," he said. "I think he just kind of capitulated to that. This truly is an event that was unintended and what I consider to be a justifiable homicide."

Mr. Bates was working with sworn officers in an undercover operation into illegal gun sales run by the Sheriff's Department's violent crimes task force.

Photo Eric C. Harris Credit Tulsa County Sheriff's Office, via Associated Press

Mr. Bates acted as an unpaid member of the department's Reserve Deputy Program, in which about 130 volunteers receive training and are deployed part-time throughout the department. A Tulsa police officer for a year in 1964-65, he had received hundreds of hours of advanced training and "can do anything a full-time deputy can do," The Tulsa World quoted a Sheriff's Department spokesman, Shannon Clark, as saying.

In 2012, the department named Mr. Bates Reserve Deputy of the Year.

Mr. Clark did not return telephone calls seeking comment.

Sheriff Stanley Glanz of Tulsa County told The World that Mr. Bates was an old friend "who made an error."

Mr. Bates was the chairman of Mr. Glanz's 2012 re-election campaign and, with a $2,500 contribution, was its biggest donor. In recent years he also donated equipment to the sheriff's office, including automobiles and technical equipment, according to a list provided by the county clerk to radio station KRMG.

"He made an error," Sheriff Glanz said, according to The World. "How many errors are made in an operating room every week?"

Sheriff Glanz told The World that he had no plans to change the deputy reserve program but that it would be looked at as part of the Sheriff Department's routine review of operations.

Mr. Brewster, the lawyer for Mr. Bates, said his client was trying to do his duty as a citizen and a reservist. Mr. Bates made a mistake that law enforcement officers have made many times before, Mr. Brewster said, pointing to the 2009 shooting of Oscar Grant in Oakland, Calif., by a transit police officer, who said that he had mistaken his sidearm for a Taser. Prosecutors charged the transit officer, Johannes Mehserle, with murder, but a jury found him guilty of involuntary manslaughter.

"When you look at this man, his life's work, he's been nothing more than giving, trusting, and just trying to do the right thing," Mr. Brewster said.

Correction: April 14, 2015

An earlier version of this article misstated the day a Tulsa County Sheriff's Department volunteer fatally shot a suspect. It was April 2, not last Thursday.

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

HarperCollins and Amazon in Multiyear Publishing Deal

HarperCollins has signed a deal with Amazon to sell its books, much like the contracts the online bookseller has reached with other publishers.

Relations between Amazon and the New York publishers, always rather fraught, worsened last year when the bookseller and the publisher Hachette had a multimonth conflict over the price of e-books.

Amazon discouraged sales of Hachette books to pressure the publisher, and Hachette's writers and their allies took to the barricades. The impasse was broken when Amazon signed a contract with Simon & Schuster in October and then used the same terms to broker peace with Hachette. A deal with another major house, Macmillan, promptly followed.

All the agreements allow the publishers to set their own e-book prices, a major point of contention, but give them financial encouragement to price cheaply.

HarperCollins issued a brief statement Monday saying it had "reached an agreement with Amazon and our books will continue to be available on the Amazon print and digital platforms." An Amazon spokeswoman declined a request for comment.

The HarperCollins negotiations became public when Business Insider reported at the end of March that the publisher was refusing to sign the contract.

"No print or digital HarperCollins books will be available on Amazon once its existing contract runs out," the publication quoted a source as saying, raising the possibility of Hachette redux.

While the possibility of that happening was unlikely, HarperCollins is making aggressive efforts to broaden its range of outlets so it does not have to depend too heavily on Amazon.

So are the other publishers. When Macmillan announced its agreement with Amazon in December, its chief executive, John Sargent, wrote in a blog post that "we have not addressed one of the big problems in the digital marketplace. Through great innovation and prodigious amounts of risk and hard work, Amazon holds a 64 percent market share of Macmillan's e-book business. As publishers, authors, illustrators and agents, we need broader channels to reach our readers."

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

Sheldon Silver’s Son-in-Law Is Arrested and Charged With Securities Fraud

A son-in-law of the former State Assembly speaker was arrested on Monday and accused of defrauding investors out of $7 million, according to a criminal complaint unsealed in federal court.

The defendant, Marcello Trebitsch, 37, of Brooklyn, told investors that he would use their money to trade in securities through his investment fund, and promised them double-digit returns with very low risk, according to a statement from the office of Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York.

Mr. Trebitsch's wife, Michelle Trebitsch, is the daughter of Assemblyman Sheldon Silver, the former speaker who has been indicted on corruption charges.

Agents for the Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested Mr. Trebitsch, and he appeared before a federal magistrate judge in Manhattan. He was charged with one count of wire fraud and one count of securities fraud.

The complaint said that Ms. Trebitsch, a certified public accountant, was a co-owner and managing partner of the investment fund, Allese Capital. She has not been charged.

According to the complaint, Mr. Trebitsch told his investors that he would use their money to buy large-cap stocks and promised returns of 14 to 16 percent. The investors, a Maryland real estate developer and his accountant, gave him $7 million between 2009 and 2013.

But Mr. Trebitsch invested only a portion of the investors' money and principally used the money for his own personal benefit and to repay other investors, the complaint said.

With the money that he did invest, the complaint said, Mr. Trebitsch suffered losses that he hid from investors by sending them "phony" monthly account statements and tax forms showing returns ranging from 15 to 19 percent.

The complaint said Mr. Trebitsch lied to investors about clearing his trades through a Wall Street bank that he claimed agreed to invest $50 million.

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

Duke Wins N.C.A.A. Championship

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 07 April 2015 | 12.07

Ah, the most indelible part of the N.C.A.A. tournament — "One Shining Moment." The post game video clip montage of the unforgettable memories of each tournament, set to the maudlin melodies of Luther Vandross.

There was of course, plenty of Duke — the new national champion — and runner-up Wisconsin. Kentucky, which entered the tournament without a loss to its name, was prominently featured, as well. Michigan State, too. But of course, the video clips and highlights everyone wants to see and remember are the ones of the games that happened three weeks ago.

Like Georgia State's Ron Hunter flying off his scooter-stool, after his son R.J. canned a game-winning 3-point to upset Baylor. Or the game-winning shots from U.A.B. and Cincinnati and North Carolina on the opening weekend of the tournament.

There were also cameos from the tearful fans that made their way into internet fame, like the crying piccolo girl from Villanova.

All in all, another memorable tournament — and "One Shining Moment" — in the books. Only 340 days until next Selection Sunday.


12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

N.C.A.A. Tournament: Thursday’s Round 2 Highlights

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 20 Maret 2015 | 12.07

March 19, 2015

Georgia State Upset of Baylor Knocks Coach to the Ground

If the Panthers of Georgia State keep winning close games, Coach Ron Hunter might wind up in a body cast. Already hobbled with a torn Achilles' tendon sustained while celebrating after winning the Sun Belt Conference tournament, Hunter flopped off his stool when his son, R.J., knocked down an improbable 3-pointer in the final seconds to give the 14th-seended Panthers a 57-56 victory over No. 3 seed Baylor.

R.J. Hunter, a junior, is expected to be a late first-round selection in this year's N.B.A. draft and is enjoying a special run to end his career playing for his father.

R.J. Hunter had just 2 points at halftime but scored 12 of his team's final 13 points to rally Georgia State from a 12-point deficit. Baylor did not score in the final 2:54.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images; Rick Wilson/Associated Press; Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images; Chris O'Meara/Associated

March 19, 2015

U.A.B. Stuns No. 3 Seed Iowa State

The University of Alabama-Birmingham has no football team and a basketball team that often has few fans in attendance. What it has after Thursday is a signature upset victory in the N.C.A.A. tournament.

The Blazers, seeded No. 14, stunned third-seeded Iowa State, 60-59, as the U.A.B freshman William Lee outplayed Iowa State's senior star Georges Niang in the crucial final moments of the game.

Lee turned down offers from larger schools to sign with U.A.B. and made the defining plays of this upset. He pulled up to hit a 15-foot shot over Niang with 23 seconds left to give the Blazers a lead. At the other end, he blocked Niang's shot, then grabbed the rebound and was fouled. Lee sank both free throws as the arena shook with anticipation of yet another upset.

David Stephenson/Associated Press

March 20, 2015

North Carolina Finally Exhales Against Harvard

Justin Jackson hit a tying jump shot and a fast-break dunk to in the final minute to enable fourth-seeded North Carolina to survive against Harvard, 67-65.

The Tar Heels (25-11) blew a 16-point lead in the second half. A 4-point play by Siyani Chambers (1) put 13th-seeded Harvard ahead, 65-63, with 1 minute 15 seconds to play. It was the Crimson's only lead of the game.

Chambers missed a pair of 3-pointers in the closing seconds, and Wesley Saunders's 3-point attempt bounced off the back of the rim.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

March 19, 2015

U.C.L.A. Gets a Call, and a Win Over S.M.U.

U.C.LA.'s Bryce Alford scored 27 points against Southern Methodist in the Bruins' 60-59 victory over the Mustangs, but his final 3 points created an instant controversy.

Down by 2 with 13 seconds to play, Alford launched a difficult 3-pointer, fading away, from about 25 feet, and the shot was going to be just wide of the rim. S.M.U.'s Yanick Moreira, No. 2, reached up and got his hand between the rim and the ball. A referee's whistle blew, and goaltending was called. Alford was given the 3-pointer, and the Bruins led, 60-59.

The S.M.U. benched howled in protest, but the call stood. And when the Mustangs missed two 3-pointers in the last 4 seconds, U.C.L.A. moved onto the Round of 32.

Jamie Rhodes/USA Today Sports, via Reuters; David Stephenson/Associated Press

March 20, 2015

Ohio State Goes to Overtime to Eliminate V.C.U.

Virginia Commonwealth had Shaka Smart's high-pressure "havoc" defense, but Ohio State had a couple of freshmen ready to stare that pressure down. The 10th-seeded Buckeyes, behind a sensational performance from the freshman D'Angelo Russell, outlasted No. 7 seed V.C.U., 75-72, in overtime.

Russell, No. 0 celebrating with his teammate Jae'Sean Tate, scored 28 points, shooting 10 for 20, with 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 steals. And another freshman, Keita Bates-Diop, hit two clutch 3-pointers down the stretch for the Buckeyes.

V.C.U. trailed by 3 and had the ball and 22.5 seconds remaining. Traveon Graham had an open look at a 3-pointer with about 11 seconds left, but it bounced in and out.

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

March 20, 2015

N.C. State Erases 16-Point Deficit and L.S.U.

Louisiana State completed its inconsistent season with an inconsistent performance. The Tigers, who nearly defeated No. 1 Kentucky but entered the tournament with 10 losses, blew a 16-point second-half lead in losing to North Carolina State, 66-65, on a basket by BeeJay Anya with one-tenth of a second remaining. The eighth-seeded Wolfpack advanced and will play the East Region's top seed, Villanova, on Saturday.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

March 20, 2015

Cincinnati Beats Buzzer, Then It Beats Purdue

Cincinnati, without its leading scorer for the last 21 minutes of the game, rallied to force overtime before dispatching Purdue, 66-65.

The Bearcats' 6-foot-10 forward Octavius Ellis was ejected for a flagrant foul with 16 minutes 22 seconds left in regulation. Cincinnati trailed, 56-49, with 48 seconds left in the second half before storming back to tie the score at 59 on a layup over the Boilermakers' Vince Edwards by Troy Caupain, left, with less than a second left on the clock, the ball resting momentarily on the back of the rim before falling through.

Edwards, right, then had his potential game-tying 3-pointer hit the rim at the overtime buzzer.

From left: Andy Lyons/Getty Images, Joe Robbins/Getty Images

March 19, 2015

Fans Play Their Roles

For supporters of Cincinnati, the passion was deep. For Arizona and Butler fans, the celebrating was hearty. And for Southern Methodist fans, the pressure was, well, face-melting.

Clockwise from top left: Andy Lyons/Getty Images, Stephen Dunn/Getty Images, Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News, via Associated Press, Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

March 19, 2015

Notre Dame Avoids Northeastern's Upset Bid

Notre Dame was the first No. 3 seed to sweat on Thursday. The Fighting Irish, who were one-and-done in their two most recent trips to the N.C.A.A. tournament, held off a pesky Northeastern team, 69-65, in the first game of the day.

"We couldn't get away from them," Notre Dame Coach Mike Brey said of Northeastern.

The Huskies, making their first tournament appearance since 1991, trailed by 12 with about six minutes to play but had a chance to take the lead in the final seconds until a steal by the Irish's Jerian Grant.

Zach Auguste, No. 30, clinched the victory with two final free throws. Auguste finished with 25 points.

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images


12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

The New Year Around the World

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 01 Januari 2015 | 12.08

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12.08 | 0 komentar | Read More

Video: From Particle Physics to the Pentagon

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 03 Desember 2014 | 12.07

BY Natalia V. Osipova | Dec. 2, 2014 | 1:33

Ashton B. Carter, a theoretical physicist and former deputy defense secretary, is President Obama's likely choice to be the next defense secretary.

Related:
  • Article: Obama Is Said to Pick Ashton Carter, Physicist and Ex-Deputy, as Defense Secretary

12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

The Upshot: Who Will Win the Senate?

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 04 November 2014 | 12.07

For months, we've been tracking the probability of each party controlling the Senate after the 2014 elections. Here's how the chances have changed over time.

Nov 3 Democrats' chance Republicans' chance

State-by-State Probabilities #

To forecast each party's chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates' political experience, fund-raising, a state's past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.

Overtime, the Orman Factor and Other Assorted Odds #

What are the odds of "overtime" — that Senate control hinges on a December runoff in Louisiana? Or that the elections leave Republicans in control of 54 seats or more? In addition to which party controls the Senate, here are some other interesting outcomes worth following.

Rolling the Dice #

With the state-by-state probabilities in hand, our machine randomly simulates all 36 Senate elections. Give it a try below. The spinners are calibrated to the current probabilities we've calculated for each state. We let the states move together to some extent, but you'll no doubt occasionally see some surprising results — over 20 percent of the time, at least one of the races we call "likely" will be won by the opposite party.

How Many Seats Will Each Party Control? #

We run the above simulation 250,000 times and tally the results. (Don't worry, we don't do it by hand.) The table below shows the outcomes of those simulations. By counting up the simulations that resulted in a Republican majority, we can estimate the probability that they will win a majority in the Senate. Likewise for the Democrats.

How Other Forecasts Compare #

Several other organizations perform similar calculations. Some use similar statistical models; others rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts' opinions. We compile and standardize them every day into one scoreboard for comparison. View all states or see how the ratings have shifted over time.

Recent Changes #

Below, a compilation of the latest shifts in Senate race ratings — both in our model and in others.

Incumbents in Trouble #

Based on incumbent winning percentages in previous Senate elections, we'd expect about three incumbents to lose their seats this year – these are the five most likely to fail to be re-elected.

Make Your Own Forecast #

We let you explore the effect of different assumptions and submit a new forecast every day. Create and share your own forecast.


12.07 | 0 komentar | Read More
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